ACCELERATING CHANGE: FOUNDATION BLOG

As a follow-up to our April 10, 2018, blog, entitled “Thoughts on ‘Why are the poor blamed and shamed for their deaths?’,” we explore the data associated with smoking and the cost of tobacco products over time. Taxation is a key demand-reduction measure of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and taxes constitute a significant component of the cost of a pack of cigarettes in many countries. The analysis we conduct in this report focuses on the U.S. market and specifically on data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), along with other sources at the state level.

As the world observes the 30^th World No Tobacco Day, it is important to acknowledge the progress that has been accomplished to reduce smoking rates. However, we still face many challenges as we aim to end this global epidemic. While many people believe smoking is becoming less prevalent, there is the same number of smokers today, a billion, as there was a decade ago, mainly due to a combination of population growth and increased cigarette consumption in several regions of the world. A billion people will die this century from cigarette smoking if the status quo is maintained. This is not acceptable. How can we do more and what can we do differently?

Millions of people worldwide are affected by Non-Communicable Diseases (which include heart disease, lung diseases, mental illnesses, cancer, and diabetes), the burden of which is heaviest in high-income countries but is increasing in low- and middle-income countries. This burden becomes more visible as populations age and other causes of death and disease decline. The burden of NCDs is worsened by globalization of risk factors. The WHO Independent High-Level Commission on NCDs issued a draft first report on May 1^st, 2018 on recommendations to Heads of State and Governments to implement policies to accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on the prevention and treatment of NCDs. The draft report policies call for the promotion of mental health and well-being. The actions proposed in the draft report are not sufficient to meet the NCDs-related SDGs.

On April 12, the book Natural Causes, by Barbara Ehrenreich, will be released. An edited extract was recently published in The Guardian entitled, “Why are the poor blamed and shamed for their deaths?” Some of the themes identified by the author are consistent with those highlighted by the Foundation’s State of Smoking Survey released last month. In our assessment, the global poll data debunks several stereotypes associated with smokers. At the Foundation, we believe action is required to cut the most tangible contributor to social class differences in mortality – smoking. The Foundation is committed to the following measures: engage the smoker in developing solutions that work for the individual in every economic and social class, leverage product innovations and advances for the benefit of the consumer, continue the enforcement of tobacco control measures that are working, and accept the FDA’s approach which places nicotine and the issue of addiction at the center of the agency’s tobacco regulation efforts.

Japan Tobacco estimates that domestic cigarette industry volume will decline at a rate of approximately 17.5% in 2018. The forecast is a result of the rapid category shift from combustible cigarettes to Heat-not-Burn (HnB) products in Japan – the pace of which is unusual for any consumer good and historically unheard of within the Tobacco sector. One competitor reports a nearly 14% national market share in the fourth quarter of 2017 with its HnB product, an increase from about 7% in the first quarter. Furthermore, results from Sendai, Japan (where HnB initially launched and multiple competitive products are present) indicate that the heated tobacco category, in a very short period, appears to have taken a nearly 30% share of the tobacco (cigarettes plus HnB) market.